Researcher, lecturer and international consultant, specialized in the social and economic
impact of technical change and in the historically changing conditions for growth, development
...the book fills an important gap in the literature on business cycles and innovations. I most strongly commend it to all those attempting to understand the past and future evolution of technology and the economy.'
Christopher Freeman, Emeritus Professor, SPRU,
University of Sussex, UK
'...Carlota Perez shows us that historically technological revolutions arrive with remarkable regularity, and that economies react to them in predictable phases. Her argument provides much needed perspective not just on history, but on our own times. And especially on our own information revolution.'
W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico
Carlota Perez. Venezuelan-British. Researcher, lecturer and international consultant, specialized in the social and economic impact of technical change.
She is Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, UCL-U.K. and at SPRU, Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, U.K. She is also Adjunct Professor at the Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance, TalTech, Estonia and Academic in Residence at Anthemis UK. She was Centennial Professor 2013-2016 at the London School of Economics (LSE).
Her articles from the early 1980s and her book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages [Elgar 2002] have contributed to the understanding of the relations between technical and institutional change, between finance and technological diffusion and between technology and economic development.
'... a road map of relevance both for scholars and investors who, having survived the Great Bubble of 1999-2000, must needs concern themselves with what happens next'
William Janeway, Vice Chairman of Warburg Pincus, USA. Author of Doing Capitalism
'The financial captains - in Tom Wolfe's memorable phrase, "the Masters of the Universe" - would be well-served by this dose of history. So, too, would the leaders of productive capital, as they struggle to add value in a frenzy of financial speculation. And as for policy-makers, the answer is obvious - Perez's insights are not just important; they are urgent... Do read the book. It is important. It is accessible. It is well presented. It's also fun.'
Raphie Kaplinsky, IDS, University of Sussex and CENTRIM, University of Brighton, UK From Review in Technovation
ON THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: “Capitalism, Technology and a Green Global Golden Age: The Role of History in Helping to Shape the Future”
The increased awareness of the role of technology and innovation in the economy has not yet found a clear expression in orthodox economic theory – or in the growth strategies being applied across most of the advanced world. There are currently widely divergent opinions... read more
ALSO ON THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: “From long waves to great surges: continuing in the direction of Chris Freeman’s 1997 lecture on Schumpeter’s business cycles”
The first edition of Theory of economic development was published in 1911. It is a well known fact that after his death Joseph Alois Schumpeter – the most quoted economist after Keynes – experienced a purgatorial season from which he emerged at the time of the first petroleum shock... read more
ON DEVELOPMENT: “Innovation as Growth Policy: The Challenge for Europe”
The advanced world is facing a crucial moment of transition. We argue that a successful outcome requires bringing innovation to the centre of government thinking and action...
ALSO ON DEVELOPMENT: "The new context for industrializing around natural resources: an opportunity for Latin America (and other resource rich countries)?"
This chapter argues that development is a moving target, and that windows of opportunity to both ‘catch up’ and ‘leap ahead’ present themselves at certain times and in specific regions due to technological revolutions and paradigm shifts. Having examined the historical precedents...
ON ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE: "Technological revolutions, paradigm shifts and socio-institutional change"
The last decades of the 20th Century were a time of uncertainty and extremely uneven development. People in many countries and in most walks of life feel uncertain about the future for themselves and their workplaces, about the prospects for their own countries and for the world
as a whole... read more
The session was chaired by Otto Scharmer and the other talk was by
Sandrine Dixson-Declève , the co-president of the Club of Rome, who also gave an optimistic message about policies moving towards sustainability. The whole session can be watched
The talk lasts one hour, covering: (1) the difficulty of predicting the future (2) getting help from recurring past patterns (3) asking where we are now in such patterns (4) how to shape the future by shaping the direction of the new technologies and, finally, (5) the role of the Covid-19 crisis in opening new possibilities.
I put up a new blog in my BTTR project page about “The Post-Covid 19 crisis as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”. It is basically a further discussion of the one I put up in March, noting that a consensus is growing about making the reconstruction a renewal in a socially and environmentally sustainable direction.
I am working on a sequel to Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, this time focusing on the role of the state.
There will be articles and blogs as the project progresses. Your comments will be welcome.
See also a series of blogs about Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s Second Machine Age:
I argue that this revolution is indeed unique, but also one of a series of five, rather than only the second since the Industrial Revolution in England, as they claim. So I make various parallels with previous ones. And yet, I also wonder why, if it is such a momentous transformation, their policy recommendations are so timid and give such a small role to public policy.
In May 2020, in the midst of the pandemic lockdown I gave a talk in the virtual Consensus event of the blockchain and cryptocurrency crowd:
THE SOCIAL SHAPING OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS: Blockchain and AI in the Information Age
My goal was to clarify a confusion about blockchain and cryptocurrencies, which are often associated with my theory about technological revolutions, bubbles and golden ages. I basically argued that there is a major difference between a revolutionary technology (like artificial intelligence or blockchain) and a technological revolution, which involves many successive revolutionary technologies and technology systems, such as the mass production revolution in the 20th century and information technology now. I also suggested that, in the necessary process of modernizing government such technologies could play a key role.
After the talk there was a discussion with Chris Burniske, the author of Cryptoassets, chaired by Zack Seward of Coindesk.
In March and April 2020, I gave my regular lectures to the master’s students of the Institute of development Studies (IDS) at the University of Sussex. This time over internet, with 36 students from all ovr the world, listening, discussing and doing online workshops. I mainly argued that technological revolutions make opportunities for development a moving target and that the current opportunity with the ICT revolution may be more favourable to developing countries than mass production. Among other things, natural resources plus technology is a new available option.
A few days before the lockdown on March 2nd 2020, during the University strike, I have a talk about “the historical role of organised labour and protest movements in shaping capitalism and technology” at IIPP-UCL.
In January 2020, I video-recorded a talk for the Ali Baba New Economy Think Tank Summit, in China bout how digital and green are the shape of the future.
In December 2019 I lectured to undergraduates in Economics at Brighton University about how the information revolution opens possibilities for an environmentally and socially sustainable future.
In October 2019, I gave a talk in Paris for Sogeti/Capgemini in their European 2019 Executive Summit. I presented my ideas about how we are at a crucial moment for shaping technology towards a meaningful sustainable future and explained how this is the challenge of this generation.
In September, Sogeti invited me to speak at their 2019 Executive Summit: Utopia for Beginners, in Chicago. I presented my ideas about how we are at a crucial moment for shaping technology towards a meaningful sustainable future and explained how this is the challenge of this generation.
In May I participated in a discussion with Kate Raworth, the author of Doughnut Economics, moderated by Mariana Mazzucato. It was the first in a series of discussions on Innovation and the Welfare State jointly organized by IIPP-UCL and the British Library:
Kate brilliantly presented her notion of development in a space that is sustainable, both socially and environmentally. I presented five lessons from history leading to why this is the moment to shape technology in the direction of smart green growth.
In April I gave the final lecture of the IIPP Course on Rethinking Capitalism:
I essentially argue that technological revolutions radically change the nature and conditions of work and they therefore require welfare revolutions and institutional innovations. And, to be consistent, those who think giving something for nothing is harmful for people should also be against inheritance.
I contributed a chapter titled ‘Transitioning to Smart Green Growth: Lessons from History’ for the recently published book Handbook on Green Growth, edited by Roger Fouquet (Elgar 2019).
I wrote a blog for UNCTAD titled "An opportunity for ethical capitalism that comes once in a century". It refers to how midway along the diffusion of each technological revolution society gets a chance to actively shape the new technologies with a social purpose in mind. A global sustainable golden age is a real possibility and the chance to shape it is now.
There is a chapter of mine on using natural resources as a platform for industrialization in Akbar Noman and Joseph Stiglitz (eds.)
(2016) Efficiency, Finance and Varieties of Industrial Policy: Guiding Resources, Learning and Technology for Sustained Growth
Here is the table of contents. And here is the previous working paper.
I sent a letter to the Financial Times arguing with J. Rostowski’s article about how to interpret the parallel with the 1930s for explaining today’s success of the populists.
You can access the letter and the discussion in the comments via my Twitter account: @CarlotaPrzPerez