CARPEREZ.ORG - Carlota Perez

Carlota Perez

Researcher, lecturer and international consultant, specialized in the social and economic impact of technical change and in the historically changing conditions for growth, development and competitiveness.

...the book fills an important gap in the literature on business cycles and innovations. I most strongly commend it to all those attempting to understand the past and future evolution of technology and the economy.'

Christopher Freeman, Emeritus Professor, SPRU,
University of Sussex, UK

'...Carlota Perez shows us that historically technological revolutions arrive with remarkable regularity, and that economies react to them in predictable phases. Her argument provides much needed perspective not just on history, but on our own times. And especially on our own information revolution.'

W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico

Carlota Perez. Venezuelan-British. Researcher, lecturer and international consultant, specialized in the social and economic impact of technical change.

She is Centennial Professor of International Development at the London School of Economics, U.K.; Professor of Technology and Development, Technological University of Tallinn, Estonia; Research Affiliate, and Honorary Professor at SPRU, Science and Technology Policy Research, School of Business, Management and Economics, University of Sussex, U.K.

Her articles from the early 1980s and her book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages [Elgar 2002] have contributed to the understanding of the relations between technical and institutional change, between finance and technological diffusion and between technology and economic development.

'... a road map of relevance both for scholars and investors who, having survived the Great Bubble of 1999-2000, must needs concern themselves with what happens next'

William Janeway, Vice Chairman of Warburg Pincus, USA

'The financial captains - in Tom Wolfe's memorable phrase, "the Masters of the Universe" - would be well-served by this dose of history. So, too, would the leaders of productive capital, as they struggle to add value in a frenzy of financial speculation. And as for policy-makers, the answer is obvious - Perez's insights are not just important; they are urgent... Do read the book. It is important. It is accessible. It is well presented. It's also fun.'

Raphie Kaplinsky, IDS, University of Sussex and CENTRIM, University of Brighton, UK
From Review in Technovation

PUBLICATIONS

ON THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
“Capitalism, Technology and a Green Global Golden Age: The Role of History in Helping to Shape the Future”
The increased awareness of the role of technology and innovation in the economy has not yet found a clear expression in orthodox economic theory – or in the growth strategies being applied across most of the advanced world. There are currently widely divergent opinions... read more

ALSO ON THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
“From long waves to great surges: continuing in the direction of Chris Freeman’s 1997 lecture on Schumpeter’s business cycles”
The first edition of Theory of economic development was published in 1911. It is a well known fact that after his death Joseph Alois Schumpeter – the most quoted economist after Keynes – experienced a purgatorial season from which he emerged at the time of the first petroleum shock... read more

ON DEVELOPMENT:
“Innovation as Growth Policy: The Challenge for Europe”
The advanced world is facing a crucial moment of transition. We argue that a successful outcome requires bringing innovation to the centre of government thinking and action... read more

ALSO ON DEVELOPMENT:
"The new context for industrializing around natural resources: an opportunity for Latin America (and other resource rich countries)?"
This chapter argues that development is a moving target, and that windows of opportunity to both ‘catch up’ and ‘leap ahead’ present themselves at certain times and in specific regions due to technological revolutions and paradigm shifts. Having examined the historical precedents... read more

ON ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE:
"Technological revolutions, paradigm shifts and socio-institutional change"
The last decades of the 20th Century were a time of uncertainty and extremely uneven development. People in many countries and in most walks of life feel uncertain about the future for themselves and their workplaces, about the prospects for their own countries and for the world as a whole... read more

ON THE BOARD

I have a separate website for my current research project, funded by Anthemis UK:

http://beyondthetechrevolution.com/

I am working on a sequel to Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, this time focusing on the role of the state. There will be articles and blogs as the project progresses. Your comments will be welcome.

A new working paper is up, written jointly with Tamsin Murray-Leach:
“A Smart Green ‘European Way of Life’: the Path for Growth, Jobs and Wellbeing”

There were two others before:
“Is Smart Green Growth the Solution? Lessons from History”

“Capitalism, Technology and a Green Golden Age: The Role of History in Helping to Shape the Future”

See also a series of blogs about Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s Second Machine Age:

1. Introduction: the pitfalls of historical periodization

2. The periodization of history into technological revolutions: why, what, how many and when?

3. The current moment: beginning of a new machine age and/or the turning point of the fifth great surge?

4. The historical patterns of bounty and spread

5. Does technology determine the future? Socio-political shaping as a recurring need within the unique space of the possible

6. The limits of the Brynjolfsson and McAfee policy recipes: Proposals on human capital

7. The limits of the Brynjolfsson and McAfee policy recipes: Proposals on science, technology and infrastructures

8. The limits of the Brynjolfsson and McAfee policy recipes: Proposals on fiscal stability and welfare

9. The socio-political shaping of a better future with an understanding of the nature of the new technologies

I argue that this revolution is indeed unique, but also one of a series of five, rather than only the second since the Industrial Revolution in England, as they claim. So I make various parallels with previous ones. And yet, I also wonder why, if it is such a momentous transformation, their policy recommendations are so timid and give such a small role to public policy. The discussion of those recommendations will follow in subsequent blogs.

Recent Talks:

In May I participated in a discussion with Kate Raworth, the author of Doughnut Economics, moderated by Mariana Mazzucato. It was the first in a series of discussions on Innovation and the Welfare State jointly organized by IIPP-UCL and the British Library:

Harnessing data for green growth with Carlota Perez and Kate Raworth

Kate brilliantly presented her notion of development in a space that is sustainable, both socially and environmentally. I presented five lessons from history leading to why this is the moment to shape technology in the direction of smart green growth.

In April I gave the final lecture of the IIPP Course on Rethinking Capitalism:

Lecture 10: Capitalism, technology and innovation.

After nine brilliant lectures by well-known economists questioning the various aspects of orthodox economic thinking about capitalism, it was my turn to look to a possible sustainable future.

You can watch the whole series here.

Last November I gave a talk in a major event of the Leading Edge Forum in London. “What is new is old: Recurring Patterns in Economic History”

On September 20th I gave a talk in the event for the 100th Anniversary of TalTech in Tallinn, Estonia. I spoke about how universities need to go beyond what they teach, and start seriously thinking about how they teach, in order to prepare students to live in a world where self-guided learning and innovation are likely to be the typical behavior and change is to become the main routine.

“A new educational paradigm for the digital revolution: Preparing for the future by learning from history”

Complete event 100th Anniversary of TalTech

An article summarising the ideas of the talk was published in EDASI.org on September 28:
“5-tehnoloogilist-revolutsiooni-digiajastu-ulikooli-valjakutsed-taltechdigital”

In English “Redesigning the Estonian university for the digital age”

On September 14th I spoke at the Democratic Design Day organized by IKEA in Lugano, Switzerland. I concentrated on how lifestyles have changed with each technological revolution and why it’s so important to accelerate the shift to ‘smart green lives’.

‘Designing the future of the information age’

This short video gives a flavour of the event:
Overview - Democratic Design Day 2018: Navigating an uncertain world through Design

In June, I gave a talk at the 2018 Summit of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation: “Smart green growth is our best option for a socially sustainable future”. I discussed three questions: Why now? Why smart green growth? And why are lifestyles so crucial?

In the Anthemis Hacking Finance Retreat in Méribel, in the French Alps, I gave a talk about why we are in a time similar to the 1930s and why government has to come back actively and what the role of fintech can be:

‘Using historical experience to understand the present and construct a better future’

I gave a talk at the Global Drucker Forum 2017 in Vienna, on November 17th:

“It is time for government to come back boldly, wisely and adequately: a view from the history of technological revolutions”

What I mean by ‘adequately’ is that it cannot be in the same way as when unleashing the Post War boom, by shaping the mass production revolution; it needs to understand and give (an environmentally and socially sustainable) direction to the ICT revolution.

Steve Denning, the chair of the panel in which I spoke at the Global Drucker Forum, published my talk in his Forbes column:

“From a casino economy to a New Golden Age: Carlota Pérez at Drucker Forum 2017”

Recent Interviews:

I had an interesting and long conversation with Azeem Azhar in his Exponential View podcast in the Harvard Business Review website:
Bubbles, Golden Ages, and Tech Revolutions

An interview by Owen Poindexter where I give my reasons to favour Universal Basic Income: Technological Economic Cycles, feat. Carlota Perez

I essentially argue that technological revolutions radically change the nature and conditions of work and they therefore require welfare revolutions and institutional innovations. And, to be consistent, those who think giving something for nothing is harmful for people should also be against inheritance.

An interview by Leslie Campisi of Anthemis about how I ended up as an academic studying technological revolutions without having planned it: “When the personal path becomes clear”

Anthemis held a camp in the French Alps last summer and Sean Park, the founder, engaged in conversation with me, after my talk. Video and transcript are up in their new monthly journal, Hacking Finance.

Peter Day interviewed me for the Drucker Forum, where I spoke on November 17th.

This is the first part:
https://www.druckerforum.org/blog/?p=1577

And here is the second part:
https://soundcloud.com/gpdf/an-urgent-agenda-carlota-perez-itwed-by-peter-day-part-ii

Strategy+Business published an interview-conversation about my cyclical theory, between Art Kleiner, the editor-in-chief of the journal, Leo Johnson, a PWC consultant on megatrends, and myself.

Are We on the Verge of a New Golden Age? S+B, August 28, 2017:

https://www.strategy-business.com/article/Are-We-on-the-Verge-of-a-New-Golden-Age

It mentions the one they published in 2005:

https://www.strategy-business.com/article/05410

Harnessing the technological revolution. Interview by John Thornhill of the Financial Times: FT Tech Tonic - Carlota Perez on Technological Revolutions

Recent Publications:

I wrote a blog for UNCTAD titled "An opportunity for ethical capitalism that comes once in a century". It refers to how midway along the diffusion of each technological revolution society gets a chance to actively shape the new technologies with a social purpose in mind. A global sustainable golden age is a real possibility and the chance to shape it is now.

The Peter Drucker Forum blog published an article I wrote about
“Why it’s time to bring back –and modernize– government”.

A new working paper is up:
“Is Smart Green Growth the Solution? Lessons from History”

I contributed a chapter on ‘green growth’ in Rethinking Capitalism, edited by Michael Jacobs and Mariana Mazzucato (Political Quarterly, Wiley Blackwell, 2016) http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1119120950.html

You can access the table of contents and introduction here:
http://media.wiley.com/product_data/excerpt/50/11191209/1119120950.pdf

You can find it as working paper in: Capitalism, Technology and a Green Golden Age: The Role of History in Helping to Shape the Future

There is a chapter of mine on using natural resources as a platform for industrialization in Akbar Noman and Joseph Stiglitz (eds.) (2016) Efficiency, Finance and Varieties of Industrial Policy: Guiding Resources, Learning and Technology for Sustained Growth

Here is the table of contents. And here is the previous working paper.

I sent a letter to the Financial Times arguing with J. Rostowski’s article about how to interpret the parallel with the 1930s for explaining today’s success of the populists.

You can access the letter and the discussion in the comments via my new Twitter account: @CarlotaPrzPerez

"Making the same mistakes as in the 1930s":
http://FT.com http://on.ft.com/2asjjPb via @FT

There is a European Union report on Green Growth and Jobs, by an expert group I chaired. It is titled Changing gear in R&I: Green growth for jobs and prosperity in the EU Download from: http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/changing-gear-in-r-i-pbKI0216237/

Documentaries:

New documentary about Schumpeter with the participation of many neo-Schumpeterian economists, including myself.

Schumpeter, the Man Who Discovered Capitalism:
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/schumpeter

You might also be interested in another documentary, also with the participation of a similar group of us, titled When Bubbles Burst:

https://www.film-enstreaming.com/en/movie/94183/When+Bubbles+Burst-2012

http://movienightseries.com/movies/id/21346/When-Bubbles-Burst-2012.pl

MEDIA