Preface Chris Freeman

INTRODUCTION: AN INTERPRETATION

PART ONE:
TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND SUCCESSIVE GREAT SURGES OF DEVELOPMENT

1. The Turbulent Ending of the Twentieth Century
   
   
2. Technological Revolutions and Techno-Economic Paradigms
   a. Five technological revolutions in two hundred years
   b. Five constellations of new industries and infrastructures
   c. Five techno-economic paradigms; five changes in organizational 'common sense'
   d. Revolutions, paradigms and great surges of development
3. The Social Shaping of Technological Revolutions
   a. From technological innovations to institutional revolutions
   b. The absorption of technological revolutions as decoupling and recoupling of the system
   c. Why technical change occurs by revolutions
4. The Propagation of Paradigms: Times of Installation, Times of Deployment
   a. Creative destruction and social polarization
   b. Installation and deployment periods: Decoupling and recoupling of the economy and institutions
5. The Four Basic Phases of Each Surge of Development
   a. The irruption phase: A time for technology
   b. The frenzy phase: A time for finance
   c. The turning point: Rethinking and re-routing development
   d. The synergy phase: A time for production
   e. The maturity phase: A time for questioning complacency
6. Uneven Development and Time-Lags in Diffusion
   a. Uneven and differentiated growth patterns rather than long swings in the aggregate
   b. Delayed sequences in the spread of technologies across the world

PART TWO:
TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND THE CHANGING BEHAVIOR OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL

7. Financial capital and production capital

a.Different functions; different criteria
b. The changing relationship between financial and production capital
c. Recurrent phases and financial crises
8.   Maturity: Financial capital planting the seeds of turbulence
at the end of the previous surge
a. ‘Power seeking’ behavior
b. Redeployment: Investing away from the core countries and sectors
c. Idle money leads to bad loans
d. Other questionable practices
e. Discovering the new technologies
9.   Irruption: The love affair of financial capital with the technological revolution 
a. Coexistence of two paradigms; coexistence of two behaviors
b. New ‘Risk capital’ instruments
c. Facilitating production, trade and purchase of new goods. Funding the rejuvenation of old core branches
e. Adoption of new technologies by the financial world
f. Expecting all investment to be as profitable
10.   Frenzy: Self sufficient financial capital governing the casino
a. Decoupling and widening social gaps
b. Speculating with old wealth: Asset inflation
c. Crises in the weaker nodes of the world economy
d. Windows of opportunity for catching up
e. Over-funding the revolutionary industries: Manias and frantic competition
f. Mergers and the creation of oligopolies
g. Ethical softening and opacity
h. Increasing tensions between the money and real economies
11.     The Turning Point: Rethinking, regulation and changeover
a. The fundamental causes of the after-Frenzy recession
b. The collapse of the bubble
c. The party’s over: Crashes as the door to regulation
d. The model and the historical record
e. Politics and the question of handing power over to production capital
f. The long depression of the 1930s in the United States
12.      Synergy: Financial capital supporting the expansion of the paradigm across the productive structure
a. An adequate framework for fruitful recoupling
b. Enabling institutional innovations
c. A shared and embedded paradigm: Flourishing synergy and convergent expansion
d. The changing role of technology
e. The passage to Maturity: Tensions and dispersion again
13.     The changing nature of financial and institutional innovations
a. Financial innovations from phase to phase
b. Financial innovations from paradigm to paradigm
c. Institutional innovations: From old to new economy

PART THREE:
THE RECURRING SEQUENCE, ITS CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

14.     The sequence and its driving forces
a. A summary of the sequence and its elements
b. The forces behind the sequence
c. The difficult balance between private and social interest
15.    The implications for theory and policy
a. The power and the dangers of an interpretation based on recurrence
b. Changing Times; Changing Views
c. Changing Times, Changing policies

EPILOGUE: THE WORLD AT THE TURNING POINT

Bibliography

Index

LIST OF FIGURES

2.1. The double nature of technological revolutions
3.1. The life cycle of a technological revolution
4.1 Two different periods in each great surge
4.2. Steel displacing iron as the main engineering material from the second to the third surge
4.3. Decoupling of the system: the differing performance of the 'high-tech' sector and the rest of the economy in the USA, 1989-96
4.4. Oil and automobile industries replacing steel as engines of growth from the third to the fourth surge.
5.1. Recurring phases of each great surge in the core countries
5.2. Approximate dates of the installation and deployment periods of each great surge of development
6.1. The geographic outspreading of technologies as they mature
7.1. The recurring sequence in the relationship between financial capital (FK) and production capital(PK)
7.2. Five successive surges, recurrent parallel periods and major financial crises 8.1. The recurrence of loan fever and default: The Latin American case
10.1. The diverging growth of the New York Stock Market and US GDP 1971-1999
11.1. The rise and fall of the NASDAQ bubble 1971-2001
14.1. Development by surges: The elements of the model and their recurring changes
14.2. The dynamics of the system: Three spheres of change in constant reciprocal action
15.1. Paradigm shift and political cleavage

LIST OF TABLES

2.1. Five successive technological revolutions 1770s to 2000s
2.2. The industries and infrastructures of each technological revolution
2.3. A different techno-economic paradigm for each technological revolution: 1770 to 2000s
8.1. Fluctuations in UK foreign investment (at current prices) as percentage of total net capital formation, 1855-1914
13.1 A tentative typology of financial innovations
13.2 The shifting behavior of finance capital from phase to phase of each surge