CARPEREZ.ORG - Carlota Perez

"Structural change and assimilation of new technologies in the economic and social systems", Futures,
Vol. 15, Nº 4,
October 1983,
pp. 357-375.
ISSN: 0016-3287

Also appeared as "Structural Change in Industry and Kondratiev Cycles", in C. Freeman, ed. Design, Innovation and Long Cycles in Economic Development, Department of Design Research, Royal College of Art, London, 1984

Reprinted in C. Freeman, ed. The Long Wave in the World Economy, International Library of Critical Writings
in Economics,
Edward Elgar,
Aldershot, 1996.

In Italian translation in "Cambiamento Strutturale e Assimilazione di Nuove Tecnologie nei Sistemi Economici e Sociali"
in P. Bisogno ed., Paradigmi Tecnologici: Saggi Sull Economia del Progresso Tecnico,
Prometheus No. 2,
Milan, pp. 155-186.

Structural Change and Assimilation of
New Technologies in The Economic and
Social Systems

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ABSTRACT

Through generating a set of hypotheses about the inter-relationship between diffusion of new technologies and economic development, the author seeks to identify the causal mechanisms of the depressions of the trough of the Kondratiev long waves. A model of the capitalist economy and an analysis of its structural patterns and processes are proposed, and from an examination of the techno-economic and socio-institutional characteristics of the fourth Kondratiev, som institutional requirements for the next upswing are elaborated.

Table of contents

A set of hypotheses
Model of the capitalist system
Model elements
	Technological styles
	Investment patterns
	a .The carrier branches
	b. The motive branches
	c. The 'induced branches
Upswing characteristics
Downswing characteristics
Patterns and processes of transformation
Taylorism: Seeds of the Fourth Kondratiev
	Occupational structure
	Income distribution
	Product demand
	Transformation process
Mass production technological style
Socio-institutional structures
Institutional requirements for the next upswing