CARPEREZ.ORG - Carlota Perez

Respecialisation and the deployment of the ICT paradigm: An essay on the present challenges of globalisation
Nov. 2005 (published in Compano et al., 2007, The Future of the Information Society in Europe: Contributions to the Debate, Technical Report EUR22353EN, IPTS, Joint Research Centre, Directorate General, European Commission).

Respecialisation and the deployment of the ICT paradigm: An essay on the present challenges of globalisation

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Table of contents

1.	ICT SHAPING AND BEING SHAPED BY THE GLOBAL CONTEXT	4

2.	THE RECURRING DIFFUSION PATTERN OF REVOLUTIONARY TECHNOLOGIES	5
	Double nature of technological revolutions	5
	A similar sequence of propagation	7

3.	INSTALLATION AND DEPLOYMENT: DIFFERENT CONDITIONS AND BEHAVIOURS	9
The basic differences		9
Shift in Innovation and target markets		11
	From creating to spreading the new lifestyles	12
	Complementary role of the induced branches	13
	Gestation of the next technological revolution	13
Shift in investment criteria		14
The Turning Point as the space for the role-shift		15
Positive legacy of the bubble: conditions for full expansion		15
Negative legacy of the bubble: three tensions making obstacle to growth		16
	Tension between the paper and the real economy	16
	Tension between the size and profile of effective demand and those of potential supply	16
	The political tensions between the poorer poor and the richer rich	17
Free markets as intensifiers of the problems		19

4.	GLOBALISATION, MARKET SEGMENTATION AND THE NATURE OF THE ICT PARADIGM	19
A look at the two globalisations		20
The ICT paradigm and globalisation		21
ICT and the hyper-segmentation of markets: Outsourcing and off-shoring		22

5.	THE CHALLENGE OF RESPECIALISATION IN A GLOBALISED WORLD	25
The policy dilemmas and the way forward		25
Global redistribution of market segments in all industries		26
Challenges and opportunities from “global push”		28
Opportunities created by “local pull”		29
The role of ICT as the platform for the whole process		31
6.	POLICY ACTION TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE AND COHESIVE GLOBALISATION	32

Three tensions: three policy areas		32
	Regulation	32
	Respecialisation	33
	National and global social net policies	34
Previous success as the main obstacle		34
REFERENCES		35

List of tables

Table 1	The five great surges of development: Technological Revolutions and Techno-economic paradigms	6
Table 2	The different features of the Installation and Deployment periods	10
Table 3	The respecialisation of the advanced countries: Local specificity as one of the forces guiding investment for the domestic market	30

List figures

Figure 1	The social assimilation of technological revolutions breaks each great surge of development in half	7
Figure 2	Variation in the share of the nation’s income earned by the top 0.1 percent of U.S. taxpayers 1920-2002	18
Figure 3	Market segmentation and its differing conditions from raw materials to all manufacturing and services	24
Figure 4	Some examples of products in different market segments	25
Figure 5	Possible trends in the global distribution of the hyper-segmented markets of each industry	27